Hogboon collapses – Carmichael predicted to lose Orkney and Shetland – Electoral Calculus 55% chance SNP takes seat.

Danus Skene - could just do it if people turn out to vote.
Danus Skene – could just do it if people turn out to vote.

The Hogboon was rushed into the Balfour Hospital, Kirkwall with severe chest pains clutching Orkney and Shetland opinion polls. 

Paddy Power the betting website puts Danus Skene on 7/2 to win Orkney and Shetland. Even though the betting sites think that Alistair will squeak in, that there is even a chance that Carmichael would lose is enough to reduce the Hogboon to gibbering fury.  Hampshire and Hereford where hurricanes hardly ever happen wold go SNP before us. Electoral Calculus puts Skene on 55% to Carmichael’s 45%. This means that Carmichael could lose – his biggest weapon is the idea that he is invulnerable and so his opponents don’t try.

If people believe that we can be rid of him at last, and pull behind one candidate then things could happen.  A key question is turn out. Historically, it has been low here – only 58% bothered to vote last time- and Carmichael did poll an astonishing 63% of the vote. How much of that was due to hatred of the Tories is hard to measure.

Many people voted Carmichael to make sure that the Tories could not get the seat. Now we now he is one but without the courage to say it out loud things will change.  Carmichael will support the Tories even though this mean will an expansion of foodbanks (which he does not see as a bad thing) and an in/out referendum on the EU – which of course will put farming subsidies at greater risk, the same subsidies that he shared out over the whole of the UK rather than kept in Scotland.

It is a legitimate political aim to want David Cameron to be Prime Minister. He is telling UKIP and the LibDems to vote tactically to keep out Labour. He sees them now as his natural supporters. If Carmichael wants that he should  say it  out loud and we can vote for or against him on that basis.

The Tory Slave for Orkney and Shetland
The Tory Slave for Orkney and Shetland

Whether Carmichael continues in power or not, he will still have to answer these questions to the Goddard Commission. They will not go away: they are

When did you first learn about Cyril Smith’s criminal activities as an MP?
-What did you do to ascertain further information?
-What files has the party held on Cyril Smith? Where are they now? If they were destroyed, on whose orders?
-What advice did you give Nick Clegg on how to handle the situation?
-Did David Steel know about the system that was in place that enabled Smith to make one phone call to get out of trouble?
-David Steel’s unwillingness to act enabled Smith to continue his activities. Will you disassociate yourself from him?
– What practical support will the party offer the people Smith victimised as an MP

One thought on “Hogboon collapses – Carmichael predicted to lose Orkney and Shetland – Electoral Calculus 55% chance SNP takes seat.

  1. mary Goodall May 5, 2015 / 7:38 pm

    I hope this man gets voted out. I have never seen such a shambles of a politician as Carmichael. I could wipe the floor with him in Debate. I am just a wee Glasgow Pensioner. But his inability to use his brain is totally apparent. He is a Disgrace.

    Liked by 1 person

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